Speculation on food prices expected to affect the drought on food production to be seen

 Speculation based primarily on food prices expected

even extended drought in northern wheat growing areas, but this will lead to food production in China this year, remains to be seen. And consequent food price increases and even expected, analysts believe that the majority is based on

wheat futures market outlook, a strong impulse to do more

According to the Central Meteorological Observatory
statistics, since last October, Huanghuai, less than normal precipitation anomalies in North China, resulting in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei and other provinces to varying degrees 9 Meteorological drought. Among them, Henan, Shandong, severe drought in some areas. According to statistics, Henan province's drought-hit area of crops has reached more than 2000 mu, of which more than 200 million mu of dry weight. In Shandong Province, the drought has reached

the provinces involved in wheat production in drought accounted for more than 80% of national output, persistent drought raises concerns about rising food prices. Most sensitive to grain futures market responsive. One analyst said the futures market, Zhengzhou ale was the main contract hit a record high prices recently, but still lags behind the current trend of domestic wheat in the international market, coupled with the consumer around the Spring Festival season, the price of wheat futures market outlook strong impulse to do more.

climate anomaly was originally the international market over the past few months, food prices In 2010, Russia's major wheat producing countries experienced its worst drought hit hard throughout the agriculture, the Russian government was even issued a ban on wheat exports. Australia, another major exporter of grain in the harvest of experience heavy rainfall also caused wheat production. The country accounts for the global market share of 11% of wheat exports. Recently, the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued a crop yield estimation of the world's major report, lowered its expectations of the global production of major crops, resulting in agricultural futures prices in Chicago rose across the board.

data provided by FAO, in December last year, global food price index has reached its highest level since 1990, to 12 last June and July rose 32%, even more than the 2008 food crisis level. Among them, the continuous rise in wheat prices is almost twice last year in June. The organization has issued the

However, most market participants believe that, due to the production of agricultural products there is a certain periodicity, encountered unusual weather, supply and demand will be amplified, the most vulnerable to market speculation. Since 2010, the domestic agricultural market,

East Iger agricultural analysts believe that in addition to climatic factors, since last year, flooding the international money market liquidity is the main commodity prices push hands, international capital to China's drought as speculation theme is Futures market price distortion effects are obvious - in fact, appear in 2010 around the world were cut wheat, maize and rice were a slight increase; wheat production was less than 4%, there may be international wheat prices are skyrocketing.

think of domestic food production concerns

In fact, concerns about the future trend of domestic prices do not have much reason to support. Last year, total grain output in China 50 years to achieve the first China currently has nearly two million tons of grain reserves. NDRC figures show that China's food stocks in the total consumption accounted for more than 40%, well above the internationally accepted 17% to 18% of the safety level of supply of the domestic market can be fully guaranteed.

According to reports, in order to avoid the spread of drought, Henan Province, after the spring has been to make active preparations for irrigation. Currently about 60 surface water Henan billion cubic meters of groundwater stock can be used with about 105 billion cubic meters of water a more adequate. Local agricultural experts believe that the early summer wheat jointing, grouting before, even if rainfall is still small, the water can be poured over and over 2 or 3; and now in winter wheat, need less water, drought impact on food production is not yet clear.

another major wheat production regions in Shandong, the local has been completed ahead of the province and medium-sized reservoirs and 158 small reservoirs in 3882 reinforcing. To improve conditions in the case of irrigation, the drought did not cause too much concern.

Zhang Weiguo, director of Shandong Academy of Social Sciences Institute of Economic Research, said there are autumn than summer, the current slow growth in wheat summer of drought on food production throughout the year and even a limited impact. 2008 winter to early spring of 2009, Shandong Province, had a similar situation also occurred in the severe drought, but when food is still the province's production.

DPRK Vice Minister of Agriculture safety risk, said the media recently, although natural disasters on grain production in China caused a lot of losses each year, but our vast territory, the total annual production cuts affected areas, but also increase the local availability of disaster. He explained that the 2010 harvest, but there is a cut of 12 provinces; although the increase for 7 years, but there are cuts in the province each year, most years there are cuts in the season. This shows that, through the complementary regions and seasons, to maintain stable grain yield is still some room for maneuver.

control over pricing is

the famous Most of the price elasticity coefficient of agricultural products, more price drop, the less price inflation, since ancient times it is easy to let speculators hoarding. If a person or an organization controlled a certain market share of agricultural products, such as 30% can lead to fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products.

According to his research, the trend of slight decrease in the production of garlic, if someone organizations 8 billion yuan of funds for the implementation of hoarding strategy of garlic, it is possible to make up about 8 times the price of garlic. If the second year of slight growth of garlic, some organizations 8 billion yuan of funds to suppress the strategic implementation of garlic, you can make garlic prices plummeted more than 80%, making numerous garlic garlic agriculture and small and medium business bankruptcy. Therefore, the market speculators and the speculators, the

Li Changping that the future trend for food prices, the currently most need to guard against the In the international market, oil, grain and other bulk commodities of resources by the international futures market pricing, the Chinese do not have pricing power. In the domestic market, some foreign food companies are aggressively entering the mainland province of grain purchasing grain and food processing industries, to snatch the market through price competition.

He said the State Development and Reform Commission last year, had several If in the future, many foreign-controlled food company collusion, leading to grain, cotton, pork and other major agricultural price inflation, the difficulty of monitoring the implementation of sanctions and greater.

view of the international food prices have nearly the high point in 2008, so that people on the domestic food prices is also expected to gradually increase. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Li Guoxiang of Rural Development, said that if the international prices rose, China's grain self-sufficiency rate is less than the coastal provinces may be some impact. From past experience, the international food prices, food prices will begin rising along the coast, and then gradually transfer to the mainland. However, turnover of China's grain output accounts for about one-third, seven or eight thousand tons of grain are present in the state treasury and local grain storage, fully controlled by the state, food processing and commercial enterprises rarely inventory. Therefore, he believes that a strong national capacity to stabilize food prices.

Li Changping that the first stage of agricultural development is the shortage of agricultural stage in pursuit of The second phase of the basic balance between supply and demand of agricultural products in order to pursue The third stage is the globalization of agricultural capital in pursuit of Some of the giant international food companies, often through control of

He said some local officials in China's relatively weak concept of food security, issues of international development trends of food and agricultural industry chain is the case of penetration of foreign capital is domestic grain prices are likely to be domestic and foreign (Press all rock)